比如说,中国央行最近的调息就是不对称的。在经济增长放缓的背景下,调息的目的是刺激贷款需求。贷款基准利率的下调幅度首次超过存款基准利率,同时,银行首次获得了一定范围内的利率自由浮动权限。由于通胀率已降至2.2%,实际利率不再为负。虽然实际利率水平仍然很低,但这反映了利率形成模式的一个巨大变化。
Still, Beijing was being far more reactive than proactive in introducing this departure. Regulators were responding to changes in the market that they haven’t been able to control. For one thing, banks matter less. Many people and companies are putting their money in trust company products with far better returns than those on offer at the banks. And even at the banks, as much as half of all new deposits are going into wealth management products, according to Fitch Ratings, while there have been no new net corporate deposits at all in five years. If the authorities hadn’t acted, they would merely have accelerated the flight out of deposits and out of the banks. That “amounts to de facto interest rate liberalisation, notes Chris Wood of CLSA in Hong Kong.
但中国政府引入这一改革在很大程度上仍是被动之举,而非主动为之。监管机构引入改革是在对它们一直控制不了的市场变化做出应对。市场变化之一是,银行的重要性下降。许多个人和公司正在将资金投入信托产品,所获收益远高于银行所能提供的回报。而惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)数据显示,即使在银行系统内,多达一半的新增存款来自对理财产品的认购,而近五年来净企业储蓄没有任何增加。如果当局未采取行动,个人和企业只会加快取出存款并将资金从银行抽出的步伐。香港里昂证券(CLSA)分析师克里斯·伍德(Chris Wood)指出,这“事实上相当于利率自由化。
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