At the beginning of July, a mix of the most thoughtful Chinese and foreign policy makers, academics and market practitioners gathered in Shanghai for the annual Lujiazui financial forum. The economic backdrop wasn’t great. Europe continues at the edge of the precipice while the US has lost momentum and emerging markets are also slowing. The world still hasn’t recovered from the global financial crisis made in the US and swiftly exported to much of the world.
7月初,一批卓有见地的中外政策制定者、学者以及市场从业者齐聚上海,参加一年一度的陆家嘴金融论坛。其时,经济形势并不乐观。欧洲仍在悬崖边徘徊,美国经济增长乏力,新兴市场增长也在放缓。世界经济仍未从全球金融危机中恢复。这场危机发端于美国,随后迅速波及世界大多数国家。
Meanwhile, hopes that China will save the planet look increasingly forlorn. Exports, a lagging indicator, came in at a relatively strong 11.4 per cent while far weaker imports, a leading indicator, at just over 6 per cent, suggest as much.
与其同时,中国拯救世界的希望日趋渺茫,其进口和出口数据都表明了这一点。经济运行的滞后指标——出口增长强劲,增长率达到11.4%;而经济运行的先行指标——进口则表现得疲软得多,增长率仅略高于6%。
One of the lessons that China learnt from the global financial crisis is that the west doesn’t have much to teach it when it comes to building a financial system. Yet China is outgrowing the system that served it well up to now. So change is inevitably coming and the Communist party, obsessed with control, may not be able to control the process. No matter what the pace or degree of change, it is likely to be a painful process for the beneficiaries of today’s system, and also likely to present painful trade-offs for those in charge of the process.
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