在习近平的第一个5年任期,预计中国劳动力人口将达到峰值并开始下降。在长期,中国人口平均年龄将迅速上升,这很大程度上归因于中国的独生子女政策。
At the same time, a huge boom in investment, the bulk of which went into the export sector and property, is increasingly unsustainable, according to Beijing’s own estimates.
与此同时,根据中国政府自己的估计,大举投资的模式越来越不可持续。中国大部分投资都流向了出口行业和房地产领域。
The party is intent on shifting China’s growth model away from exports and investment towards domestic consumer demand. Mr Xi is likely to make this a focus of his economic policy.
中共打算将增长模式从出口和投资转向内需。习近平可能以此作为其经济政策的重点。
This will mean placing a continued emphasis on expanding the country’s woefully inadequate social services and a slew of policies aimed at boosting the country’s weak service industries. It will also involve taking on powerful constituents in the state sector, where the Hu administration oversaw a resurgence that is popularly referred to as “guojin mintui, or “the state advances and the private sector recedes.
这将意味着中国将会继续把重点放在发展严重不足的社会服务上,并出台一系列旨在提升落后服务业的政策。这还意味着要与强大的国有部门较量。胡锦涛领导的政府促进了国企复兴,而这被广泛称为“国进民退。
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